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With nearly all of the campaign disclosure reports filed for the third quarter, one thing is clear: in the down-ballot races for statewide offices, the Republican incumbents have a crushing financial advantage over their underfunded Democratic challengers.
From Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle down through Labor Commissioner Mark Butler, GOP candidates have outraised their opponents by margins of as much as 55-1 in this election cycle.
Cagle has raised nearly $2.6 million in the course of his reelection campaign, while former Democratic legislator Connie Stokes has raised a mere $86,993. That’s roughly a 30-1 fundraising edge.
Secretary of State Brian Kemp has raised a total of $1.13 million for his reelection compared to just $20,262 by Democratic opponent Doreen Carter, a whopping advantage of 55-1.
Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black has raised nearly $1.6 million. Chris Irvin, the grandson of former ag commissioner Tommy Irvin, has pulled in $51,773, which means Black has a 30-1 money advantage.
Insurance Commissioner Ralph Hudgens has raised $1.04 million in this cycle while Democrat Liz Johnson clocks in at $27,151. That’s a ratio of 38-1 in Hudgens’ favor.
Labor Commissioner Mark Butler has raised the more modest sum of $260,782, but that’s still nearly four times the amount of money pulled in by former legislator Robbin Shipp, who reported $66,049 in total contributions.
The Democrat who’s done the best job of fundraising in these down-ballot races has been former legislator Greg Hecht, who’s running for attorney general.
Hecht reported total contributions of $534,100, which is a credible amount for a statewide campaign. However, incumbent Attorney General Sam Olens has raised more than six times as much money as Hecht: $3.48 million.
Republican Public Service Commissioner Lauren “Bubba” McDonald’s fundraising advantage over one of his opponents could be expressed by a ratio that stretches to mathematical infinity.
McDonald has raised $164,548 total for his reelection campaign. Libertarian nominee Aaron Gilmer reported zero contributions in his report for the Sept. 30 period. (Democrat Daniel Blackman has yet to report his Sept. 30 status, but he had raised $10,467 in contributions as of June 30.)
A secondary aspect of this latest round of campaign reports is the cash that candidates have not spent yet. This becomes particularly important for Cagle, Olens, and Kemp, who are all seen as potential candidates for governor in 2018.
Cagle still had more than $1.5 million cash on hand as of Sept. 30, while Olens had $1.1 million and Kemp had just $144,961.
All three of them have substantial leads in the polls and are favored to win reelection. How much of their remaining cash will they be able to avoid spending over the next four weeks, leaving it available to be carried over to a primary campaign for governor four years from now?
Bluer than you think?
The biggest unanswered question of this election year in Georgia is how much of an impact the state’s changing demographics – its population is becoming less white, more heavily black and Latino every year – will have on the outcomes at the ballot box.
Nate Cohn of the New York Times contends that Georgia may be “bluer than it appears” because of the ongoing churn in demographics. He writes:
No other plausibly competitive state has seen a more favorable shift for Democrats in the racial composition of eligible voters over the last decade. The pace of demographic change is so fast that Michelle Nunn, a Democrat, is locked in a tight race against the Republican David Perdue for an open Senate seat — even with an off-year electorate that is favorable for the G.O.P.
The pace of demographic change might even be fast enough to outpace the polls. . . .
According to data from the Georgia secretary of state, the 2010 electorate was 66.3 percent white and 28.2 percent black. Since then, the white share of registered voters has fallen, to 58 percent from 62.6 percent.
White voters turn out at somewhat higher rates than other voters in midterm election, so we should expect the white share of the actual vote to be a little higher. Combining the data on registered voters with census data on the voter-eligible population, I expect the 2014 electorate to be about 64.2 percent white and 28.8 percent black. (Ms. Nunn is expected to win at least 90 percent of the black vote.)
Yet the last four nonpartisan polls that released demographic data showed an electorate that’s 65.7 percent white and 25.7 percent black. Those polls show Mr. Perdue ahead by 3.3 points, but they would show something closer to a dead heat if the likely electorate matched my estimates.
In a related story, Kristina Torres of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution did an analysis of voter registration numbers from the secretary of state’s office and reported that more than 212,000 new voters have been added to the voter rolls since March 1.
There have been concerted efforts this year by activist organizations to register more minority voters. These groups include the New Georgia Project (founded by state Rep. Stacey Abrams), the Georgia Association of Latino Elected Officials (GALEO) and the Asian American Legal Advocacy Center (which recently changed its name to Asian Americans Advancing Justice).
In addition to the 212,000 new registrants cited in Torres’ article, there are another 40,000 prospective voters whose applications, according to Abrams, were turned over to the secretary of state’s office but whose names have not appeared on the voter rolls yet.
Jared Thomas, a spokesman for Secretary of State Brian Kemp, said all pending voter applications have been distributed to county election officials for review and verification, a process that is still ongoing.
Torres reported that the counties with the largest totals of new voters are: Fulton — 29,459, DeKalb — 20,308, Gwinnett — 18,246 and Cobb — 13,626.
Fulton and DeKalb have large black populations and are counties that tend to vote Democratic. Gwinnett and Cobb are still Republican Party strongholds.
Cook says Barrow could survive
Washington prognosticator Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report thinks Rep. John Barrow could survive his latest challenge in the 12th Congressional District from Republican Rick Allen.
During a recent appearance on C-Span, Cook told one of the call-in questioners:
Barrow seems to, he’s got an edge, a decent edge in a district that’s just absolutely ugly. I mean, for a Democrat, really, really, really ugly. . . .
I think Barrow’s going to survive this. . . . As I remember, the district’s got what we call a partisan voting index. As I remember, it’s either seven or eight, I think eight points more Republican than the rest of the country. But Barrow’s got a bond, he’s got a connection. And so far this year, it looks like it’s working so that if you told me Democrats were going to lose 10 seats nationwide, I don’t think Barrow’s would be in there. . . .
In the House there just aren’t that many vulnerable Democratic seats left. I mean, when you lose 63 seats in one election and you only get eight back in the next one, you’re already, you know, the low, mid-hanging fruit for Republicans (is) already picked. So it’s just sort of a mop-up operation after that. I think Barrow’s going to be okay. If you saw early on — and Georgia’s not one of the first states, but relatively early — if you saw Barrow going down, you’d be saying, okay, Democrats may be having an even worse night than we had thought. My guess is, he will survive, and I say that despite the fact the environment’s pretty tough this year.
Hillary in 2016?
In its latest survey of Georgia voters, Public Policy Polling (PPP) asked respondents who they would support in the 2016 presidential election if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. PPP said Clinton holds a lead over every potential GOP nominee except Jeb Bush:
Clinton leads against 6 out of 7 potential Republican opponents we tested, trailing only Jeb Bush at 45/44. She leads Rand Paul (47/44), Mike Huckabee (48/45), and Herman Cain (48/45) all by 3, Chris Christie (46/41) by 5, and Ted Cruz (47/41) and Newt Gingrich (49/43) both by 6.
There is little desire in Georgia for a repeat Presidential bid by either of its native sons who ran in 2012. Just 27% want Cain to run again, to 57% who say he should sit it out. And for a Gingrich bid there’s even more skepticism — only 21% think he should run to 64% who believe he should take a pass.
PPP said its respondents also were asked about two hot-button political issues:
56% of voters support expanding Medicaid to only 33% who are opposed, and 56% also support increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour to 38% who are opposed. Both of those things have around 90% support from Democrats, as well as from about 25% of Republicans.
© 2014 by The Georgia Report
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